Application of a Hybrid CEEMD-LSTM Model Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index for Drought Forecasting: The Case of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of droughts can effectively reduce the risk of drought. We propose a hybrid model based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and long short-term memory (LSTM) to improve drought prediction accuracy. Taking the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as an example, the prediction accuracy of the LSTM and CEEMD-LSTM models for the standardized precipitation index (SPI) on multiple timescales was compared and analyzed. Multiple evaluation metrics were used in the comparison of the models, such as the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). The results show that (1) with increasing timescale, the prediction accuracy of the LSTM and CEEMD-LSTM models gradually improves, and both reach their highest accuracy at the 24-month timescale; (2) the CEEMD can effectively stabilize the time-series, and the prediction accuracy of the hybrid model is higher than that of the single model at each timescale; and (3) the NSE values for the hybrid CEEMD-LSTM model at SPI24 were 0.895, 0.930, 0.908, and 0.852 for Fuhai, Kuerle, Yutian, and Hami station, respectively. This indicates the applicability of the hybrid model in the forecasting of drought.