Application Development Risk Assessment Model Based on Bayesian Network

Jaka Sembiring,Johan P Sipayung,Arry A Arman

doi:10.12928/telkomnika.v16i3.7288

Abstract

This paper describes a new risk assessment model for application development and its implementation. The model is developed using a Bayesian network and Boehm’s software risk principles. The Bayesian network is created after mapping top twenty risks in software projects with interrelationship digraph of risk area category. The probability of risk on the network is analyzed and validated using both numerical simulation and subjective probability from several experts in the field and a team of application developers. After obtaining the Bayesian network model, risk exposure is calculated using Boehm's risk principles. Finally, the implementation of the proposed model in a government institution is shown as a real case illustration.

Highlights

To develop a high quality application on time and within budget, one usually has to deal with various risks [1]
It is widely known that the success rate of successful IT project is very low. This fact is supported by a research from Standish Group on IT project 1994-2004 where it is shown that the completely failure rate was 18% in all projects, 53% of them were completed with unsatisfactory time, costs or effect, and only 29% of them had successfully accomplished the project target [2]. These facts show us that it is necessary to consider risk assessment as a way to systematically identify whether the occurrence of risk may affect the objectives of organization
Risks in application development are related to the resources and functional problems encountered in the process of developing application and to the impact of such problems

Summary

Introduction

To develop a high quality application on time and within budget, one usually has to deal with various risks [1]. Sonchan et al have introduced top 20 software risks based on the frequency of their citations on highly referred and recent literature in the area of risk management of application development projects. They have succeeded in extracting and classifying top risks from thirty most frequently cited and recently published literatures on software project risks. They used Delphi method to propose potential impacts and probabilities of all classified risk [7]. This result can be seen in our previous research [10]

Findings

Schedule Pressure and Veracity

Conclusion