Abstract
In Japan, there has been minimal research on the future forecasting of agricultural commodity prices. If “prices in the future harvest season ” can be predicted during the planting planning stage, a more profitable planting can be achieved. This study examines the applicability of a state-space model as a method for forecasting agricultural prices up to a year in advance. According to the analysis results, the state-space model was selected as the best model for 11 of the 14 target commodities. In particular, the state-space model with time-variant parameters was suggested to be effective in forecasting a year in advance.
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