Abstract
<p>Climate analogue analysis is an approach that has been proposed in climate change impact studies to serve as a complement to climate impact projections. In this approach, a location whose present climate is similar to the projected climate of another location is investigated to learn about potential impacts of climate change, based on a real-life example. Possible response options to negative impacts may also be identified for climate change adaptation planning. The current study used the climatic distance method to determine analogue locations for Bugabira Commune in Burundi. The climatic distance was calculated from temperature and rainfall projections produced by three climate models, driven by two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and assessed for three future time periods. Information relevant to farming systems and adaptation was then obtained through interviews that involved 450 household heads living in Bugabira (target) and Bubanza (analogue) communes in Burundi. By comparing the two farming systems using results from the analysis of the questionnaires, similarities and differences were determined. The analysis showed that crop and animal types, as well as various land management practices, were similar in both locations. Slight differences in land management strategies could only be noticed in the adoption rates of various technologies. Fifty-nine percent and 19% of farmers at the target and analogue locations, respectively, practiced contour ploughing, while 68% and 43% of farmers at the target and analogue locations practiced crop rotation. Eighty-seven percent of farmers at the target site and 58% of farmers in the analogue location applied manure to their farms. The differences in adoption rates could not be attributed to climatic or non-climatic factors. Based on the results, the study concluded that the analogues approach has low potential for the farmers of Bugabira to learn lessons for adaptation planning.</p>
Highlights
Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are changing the Earth’s climate at present (Ring et al, 2012; Braconnot et al, 2007), and this change will likely continue despite current attempts to mitigate global warming (Meehl et al, 2005; Ramirez-Villegas et al, 2013)
Information relevant to farming systems and adaptation was obtained through interviews that involved 450 household heads living in Bugabira and Bubanza communes in Burundi
This paper evaluates the usefulness of the climate analogue approach for assisting adaptation of this community to climate change by: (i) finding a location whose present climate resembles the future projected climate of Bugabira Commune and (ii) comparing farming systems in the two locations, focusing on the extent to which differences between systems are related to climate
Summary
Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are changing the Earth’s climate at present (Ring et al, 2012; Braconnot et al, 2007), and this change will likely continue despite current attempts to mitigate global warming (Meehl et al, 2005; Ramirez-Villegas et al, 2013). Appreciation of likely impacts of climate change facilitates the finding of suitable adaptation options For agricultural adaptation, such projections have often relied on process-based models (e.g. crop models; Tao et al, 2009; Challinor et al, 2004) or on ecological niche modeling (Peterson, 2006; Peterson & Shaw, 2003). While both approaches have produced useful results in many cases, they suffer from certain limitations that have often restricted their effectiveness in identifying land management strategies for adaptation. Both modeling approaches require extensive calibration, for which adequate datasets are often not available
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