Abstract

This study examined relationships between temperature, precipitation, geo-topography, and the spring phenology of Fuji and Hongro apple cultivars along spatial gradients across South Korea. Phenology data was gathered from 2011 to 2014 in 42 uniformly managed research orchards which span a range in climate, latitude, and elevation. We used linear models and spatially explicit forecasts to study apple phenology under climate change scenarios. Given dry winters and complex terrain in South Korea, we hypothesized that, in addition to temperature, precipitation and geo-topographic factors influence apple phenology. We also expected responses to climate variation to be similar between (spatial) and within (temporal) orchards, given the controlled conditions and the use of apple clones in this study. With other factors held constant, phenological sensitivity ranged from - 3.2 to - 3.4days°C-1 for air temperature and - 0.5 to - 0.6dayscm-1 for March precipitation in a combined model. When modeled without temperature, phenology changed by up to 10days over the full range in March precipitation. Spring temperatures and precipitation in March had very little cross-correlation (r< 0.05), suggesting these patterns are independent; however, in a combined model including temperature, predicted changes in precipitation over the next 80years have only a small impact on future apple phenology. Combining the best models with climate forecasts for South Korea, spring phenology continues to occur earlier over the next 80years, mostly due to warming temperatures but with strong variation between regions. This suggests regionally specific climate change adaptation strategies are needed for future apple production in South Korea.

Full Text
Paper version not known

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call

Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.