Abstract
Species have strong indirect effects on others, and predicting these effects is a central challenge in ecology. Prey species sharing an enemy (predator or parasitoid) can be linked by apparent competition, but it is unknown whether this process is strong enough to be a community-wide structuring mechanism that could be used to predict future states of diverse food webs. Whether species abundances are spatially coupled by enemy movement across different habitats is also untested. Here, using a field experiment, we show that predicted apparent competitive effects between species, mediated via shared parasitoids, can significantly explain future parasitism rates and herbivore abundances. These predictions are successful even across edges between natural and managed forests, following experimental reduction of herbivore densities by aerial spraying of insecticide over 20 hectares. This result shows that trophic indirect effects propagate across networks and habitats in important, predictable ways, with implications for landscape planning, invasion biology and biological control.
Highlights
We found parasitism by Hymenoptera, Diptera (Tachinidae) and Nematoda (Mermithidae)
In cases where more attacks were predicted than hosts were collected in the t þ 1 collection, expected parasitism rates were greater than one. We reduced these expected parasitism rates to 1 in our analysis because our definition of parasitism rate was parasitized hosts/total hosts, so rates greater than one are not possible
For linear models we report multiple R2
Summary
We collected species interaction data to create a regional ‘metaweb’ (a single web made up of all the webs from separate sites; see below; Fig. 1a–c). The purpose of this metaweb was to maximize resolution of potential host–parasitoid linkages, from which to derive predictions about the potential for indirect interactions based on shared parasitoids (Fig. 1d,e). Towards the end of the training data collection, in early 2011, we experimentally reduced herbivore abundance on the plantation side of the edge in half of our validation sites (at eight herbivore reduction sites), and each of these was paired with a control site, within eight spatial blocks (Fig. 1h). Each forest (plantation or native) was large enough to have an interior location at least 400 m from all edges
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