Aotearoa New Zealand's 21st‐Century Wildfire Climate

Abstract

AbstractWildfire is a highly variable natural phenomenon, yet despite this, climate change is already making wildfire conditions measurably worse around the world; however, detailed knowledge about Aotearoa New Zealand's wildfire climate is currently limited. This study blends weather observations with regional climate model projections to assess Aotearoa New Zealand's 21st‐century wildfire climate. We find that in the 21st‐century, the emergence of a new—more severe wildfire climate will occur. Detailed analysis of observed and simulated wildfire weather finds that “very‐extreme” wildfire weather conditions matching the levels observed in Australia's 2019/2020 “Black Summer” bushfires are possible in regions formerly unaffected. While the extent of emergence is dependent on future emissions, the frequency of very‐extreme conditions for the areas affected can occur at any time and is independent of projected 21st‐century climate changes. Our findings have significant implications for many rural fire authorities, forest managers and investors, and climate mitigation and afforestation programs.