Abstract
Abstract. This study proposes a role-playing experiment to explore the value of modern impact-based weather forecasts on the decision-making process to (i) issue warnings and manage the official emergency response under uncertainty and (ii) communicate and trigger protective action at different levels of the warning system across Europe. Here, flood or strong-wind game simulations seek to represent the players' realistic uncertainties and dilemmas embedded in the real-time forecasting-warning processes. The game was first tested in two scientific workshops in Finland and France, where European researchers, developers, forecasters and civil protection representatives played the simulations. Two other game sessions were organized afterwards (i) with undergraduate university students in France and (ii) with Finnish stakeholders involved in the management of hazardous weather emergencies. First results indicate that multi-model developments and crowdsourcing tools increase the level of confidence in the decision-making under pressure. We found that the role-playing approach facilitates interdisciplinary cooperation and argumentation on emergency response in a fun and interactive manner. The ANYCaRE experiment was proposed, therefore, as a valuable learning tool to enhance participants' understanding of the complexities and challenges met by various actors in weather-related emergency management.
Highlights
Extreme weather and climate events challenge weather forecasting and emergency response operations and are often related to high social, environmental and economic impacts worldwide (WMO, 2015)
In Europe, recent examples of devastating weather events include the 2003 European heatwave from which France suffered the worst losses with almost 15 000 deaths from 1 to 20 August (Hémon and Jougla, 2004), the 15–16 June 2010 flash-flood event in the Var Department in France that caused the loss of 26 people (Poussin et al, 2015; Ruin et al, 2014), and the catastrophic fires in the forests of central Portugal that killed 64 people and destroyed more than 480 houses on 17 June 2017 (Mayer et al, 2017)
tabletop role-playing games (TRPGs) are the original form of role-playing games and in principle they are conducted through discussion within an interactive and collaborative storytelling system (Aylett et al, 2008)
Summary
Extreme weather and climate events challenge weather forecasting and emergency response operations and are often related to high social, environmental and economic impacts worldwide (WMO, 2015). G. Terti et al.: ANYCaRE: a role-playing game to investigate crisis decision-making use raw meteorological data and model outputs to run hydrological models and inform emergency services and other user groups such as road maintenance services for the imminent risk to life and property in the area of their responsibility. With a similar purpose the UK Met office developed the Forecastbased early action game, simulating a community affected by floods who need to prioritize their actions based on a severe-weather forecast (UK Met Office, Deltares, and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, 2018) Another roleplaying game called Adapted Technologies for Early Warning Systems: Playing with Uncertainty aims to illustrate the complexity of decision-making in EWSs and the need to integrate all its components by playing with different scenarios of economic development, stakeholder participation, technology and uncertainty (Garcia Londoño and Fearnley, 2018). Further advancements, extensions of ANYCaRE and opportunities for future applications are discussed
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