ANUSPLIN статистик загвар ашиглан Монгол орны агаарын температур, хур тунадасыг (1991-2020) өндөр нарийвчлалтай торын зангилааны цэгээр тооцоолох нь

Abstract

The main objectives of this study were to use the statistical model (ANUSPLIN) to calculate the updated norms Mongolia of air temperature and precipitation (average for 1991-2020 according to the World Meteorological Organization) with high spatial accuracy for any grid, and to perform objective analysis in observation data. GTOPO30 (global digital elevation model, DEM) elevation grid data with 30-arc seconds (1 km) accuracy for estimating the mountain and orographic conditions of Mongolia, and monthly climate data of 137 meteorological stations of the National Agency of Meteorological and Environment of Mongolia (NAMEM), as well as monthly data of 3 automatic weather stations for glacial melting and accumulation research, were used to generate a series of data from 1991 to 2020 using climate statistical processing and comparison methods (linear regression equations). The data were used as peripheral and initial condition data for the statistical model (ANUSPLIN). The average spatial resolution of the data is ~ 0.75 ° or ~ 83.2 km for 137 meteorological stations, and ~ 0.87 ° or ~ 96.2 km for 3 automatic meteorological stations for ice melting and accumulation research. Hence, it can be considered that the hydro-meteorological and environmental research stations of Mongolia are relatively distributed sparsely. As a result of the statistical downscaling analysis, monthly air temperature and precipitation norms of Mongolia as an average of 1991-2020 were calculated for each grid with a spatial resolution of 0.0125° × 0.0125° (~ 1.4 × 1.4 km). The spatial correlation coefficients (SPC) were 0.97-1.00 and 0.88-1.00 for air temperature and precipitation, respectively, while the mean square error (DCA) was 0.24 °C to 1.03 °C for temperature and 0.02 mm to 3.61 mm for precipitation. For spatial average, the air temperature from the model was warmer by 1.1-1.4 °C in winter (December to January) and 0.2-0.6 °C in spring and autumn (March to May, and September to November) than for observation data, while it was very similar for the summer (June-August). But model precipitation was reduced by 0.5-2.9 mm during the warm season (May-October) than observation data. The monthly correlation coefficients between the statistical model and observation data were 99% or higher. Therefore, this high-resolution spatial data for air temperature and precipitation norms of Mongolia for grid points calculated using the statistical model ANUSPLIN can be used as fundamental data for various scientific studies such as environment, agriculture and biology.