Anti-sanction and sanction economic policy of Russia in 2022–2025. Part 1: Analysis and forecast of managing sanctions against Russia

Abstract

Objective: to study the packages of anti-Russian sanctions, to analyze measures to counteract sanctions, and to formalize the current and future sanctions policy of Great Britain, the USA, and the EU.Methods: the author uses such techniques of abstract-logical method as analysis, synthesis, deduction, induction, analogy, formalization, and forecasting.Results: based on the analysis of scientific literature, as well as opinions of experts and officials, three main approaches to the assessment of Russia’s sanctions policy were identified: macroeconomic, sectoral and regional. The packages of anti-Russian sanctions and counter-sanctions by Russia in chronological order were assessed. The effectiveness of anti-Russian sanctions in terms of their impact on the Russian economy was assessed. Current trends in the sanctions policy of the UK, the US and the EU were revealed. The following questions were answered: who is the main objective of the sanctions (Russia or the EU); whether China will be drawn into the sanctions war; whether the official objectives of anti-Russian sanctions will be achieved; and whether the strengthening of sanctions will lead to a hot geopolitical conflict. The prerequisites and motives for the EU entry into the sanctions war were determined; the influence of the EU economic problems on the duration of the sanctions war was revealed. Scenarios for the development of the EU relations with Russia were constructed and the terms of the sanctions war unleashed by the United States were predicted.Scientific novelty: it was determined that the anti-Russian sanctions after their fifth package became in many respects demonstrative. The situational response of the Russian authorities to the sanctions was large-scale, corresponded to the current situation, was carried out thoughtfully and effectively. It was revealed that the focus of the UK and the US sanctions shifted to the EU, as well as the prerequisites of the EU-China conflict. It was found that if the sanctions policy intensity is maintained, the EU economy may significantly degrade in the next 10-15 years.Practical significance: the given data and conclusions may help in formalization and correction of sanctions and antisanctions economic policy of Russia.