Antimicrobial Resistance Risk Assessment Models and Database System for Animal-Derived Pathogens.

Yongjun Zheng,Xinxing Li,Ding Xu,Congming Wu,Jianping Li,Buwen Liang

doi:10.3390/antibiotics9110829

Yongjun Zheng, Xinxing Li + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/antibiotics9110829

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Abstract

(1) Background: The high use of antibiotics has made the issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) increasingly serious, which poses a substantial threat to the health of animals and humans. However, there remains a certain gap in the AMR system and risk assessment models between China and the advanced world level. Therefore, this paper aims to provide advanced means for the monitoring of antibiotic use and AMR data, and take piglets as an example to evaluate the risk and highlight the seriousness of AMR in China. (2) Methods: Based on the principal component analysis method, a drug resistance index model of anti-E. coli drugs was established to evaluate the antibiotic risk status in China. Additionally, based on the second-order Monte Carlo methods, a disease risk assessment model for piglets was established to predict the probability of E. coli disease within 30 days of taking florfenicol. Finally, a browser/server architecture-based visualization database system for animal-derived pathogens was developed. (3) Results: The risk of E. coli in the main area was assessed and Hohhot was the highest risk area in China. Compared with the true disease risk probability of 4.1%, the result of the disease risk assessment model is 7.174%, and the absolute error was 3.074%. Conclusions: Taking E. coli as an example, this paper provides an innovative method for rapid and accurate risk assessment of drug resistance. Additionally, the established system and assessment models have potential value for the monitoring and evaluating AMR, highlight the seriousness of antimicrobial resistance, advocate the prudent use of antibiotics, and ensure the safety of animal-derived foods and human health.

Highlights

With the development of its economy, China’s animal-derived food output has continued to increase
In 2018, China’s animal-derived food output reached 21,387 million tons, but the rapid increase in production has been accompanied by the widespread use, of antibiotics [1], which has made the issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) increasingly serious, as it poses a substantial threat to the health of animals and humans [2,3,4]
This study developed a professional database system for the collection and query of AMR data, and established the drug resistance index (DRI) model and disease risk assessment model to assess the risk of AMR

Summary

Introduction

With the development of its economy, China’s animal-derived food output has continued to increase. In 2018, China’s animal-derived food output reached 21,387 million tons, but the rapid increase in production has been accompanied by the widespread use, of antibiotics [1], which has made the issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) increasingly serious, as it poses a substantial threat to the health of animals and humans [2,3,4]. The World Health Organization (WHO) has repeatedly emphasized the serious situation of AMR and advocated the prudent use of antibiotics [7,8]. Antibiotics 2020, 9, 829 established the standard AMR monitoring system for animal-derived pathogens, including Denmark in 1995, the United States in 1996, etc. In China, AMR monitoring started relatively late; the first system was not established until 2009 [17], there remains a certain gap in the AMR system between China and the advanced world level

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