Abstract

Market reaction to a change in official interest rates will depend on the extent to which the change is anticipated, and on how it is interpreted as a signal of future policy. In this paper, a technique is developed to separate the anticipated and unanticipated components of such changes and is applied to estimate the response of Euro-deutsch mark interest rates to adjustments in the Bundesbank`s Lombard and discount rates. The results shed light on the efficiency of this market and on the scope for policy signaling by the central bank.

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