Abstract
Our understanding of the impacts of ongoing global warming on terrestrial species has increased significantly during the last several years, but how climatic change has affected, and will affect, the distribution of earthworms remains largely unknown. We used climate niche modeling to model the current distribution of the giant earthworm Rhinodrilus alatus - an endemic species of the Cerrado Domain in Brazil, which is traditionally harvested and commercialized for fishing bait. R. alatus is sensitive to environmental changes because climate, in synergy with soil attributes, determine its annual reproductive cycle and distribution. The paleoclimatic reconstructions predict important geographical shifts from LGM (~21,000 yBp) to the present potential distribution of R. alatus: range expansion, fragmentation, and shrinkage of the current core area. Further, the 2070 scenarios predict substantial shrink and losses of stable areas. Our results indicate that climate change will not only affect the extent of the distribution, but will also promote significant fragmentation and a geographical shift to outside of the currently recognized geographical boundaries. In this context, populations of R. alatus would decline and traditional harvesting would collapse, requiring immediate implementation of management and conservation measures for the species and economically sustainable alternatives for the local community.
Highlights
Climatic change is causing important changes in the spatial occurrence and distribution of species worldwide and has been the focus of researchers seeking to anticipate how species, communities and ecosystems will respond (e.g., Parmesan 2006, Faleiro et al 2013, Anadón et al 2014, IPCC 2014)
We modeled the spatial distribution of R. alatus using climate data and employed the latest climate-change scenarios provided by the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC (Taylor et al 2012) to reconstruction of past scenarios until the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and to forecast how the distribution of this species will change by the year 2070
We minimized the main sources of error in Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) modeling: (i) taxonomic uncertainty – the specimen identification was based on morphologic criteria proposed by Righi (1971) and phylogenetic analysis (COI and ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 regions, see Siqueira et al 2013 for more details), (ii) inaccurate georeferenced data for the species – we employed only occurrence records obtained in situ, and (iii) biased sample – records that cover the total distribution and altitudinal range of the species were obtained
Summary
Climatic change is causing important changes in the spatial occurrence and distribution of species worldwide and has been the focus of researchers seeking to anticipate how species, communities and ecosystems will respond (e.g., Parmesan 2006, Faleiro et al 2013, Anadón et al 2014, IPCC 2014). Environmental factors (e.g., soil type, temperature) generally exhibit heterogeneous patterns, and if a species is affected by these factors, their geographical distribution should, theoretically, reflect environmental patterns associated with the constraints of their physiology and life history (Pulliam 2000, Sexton et al 2009). In South America, the joint use of phylogeographic and paleoclimatic reconstructions has corroborated the sensitivity of distinct taxonomic groups to climate change based on their patterns of geographic expansion and contraction (see Turchetto-Zolet et al 2013 for a review)
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