Anticipating the Health Needs of Americans: Some Demographic Projections

Abstract

Barring a major catastrophe, the health services will have to provide for massive population growth in the decades ahead. A reasonable forecast gives increases of 19 per cent for the present decade and 44 per cent for the period 1960-1980, with a corresponding increased need for medical services. This will be added to existing unfulfilled needs for the care of the aged and those suffering from chronic illness. The aged will continue to increase rapidly in number, but the largest absolute growth of population will be among children and, later, among young adults. Contrary to popular impres sions, the greatest percentage increase in future need for medical services may well be in the treatment of acute condi tions rather than chronic conditions more characteristic of the aged. Further, the general upward trend in social and eco nomic characteristics and expectations means an increased demand for all medical services over and above those arising from population change. There will be a much larger popu lation, better informed and better able to command improved medical services. Fortunately, demographic changes offer part of the solution as well as part of the problem. During the next decade, there will be a rapidly growing reservoir of young people from which to recruit nurses, doctors, and other health service personnel.