Anticipating Failed States in Latin America - Implications for SOUTHCOM Strategy

Abstract

Abstract : This monograph defines the model of intra-state conflict as described by historian and social scientist Crane Brinton. His book, The Anatomy of Revolution, provides a useful framework to understand the nature of intra-state conflict. After describing Brinton's work, this monograph introduces the concept of the failed state, which affords Brinton's model fundamental differences in the initial stages of intra-state conflict. Finally, this monograph introduces the concept of Latin American authoritarian rule as manifested through the military strongman. These concepts spawn new actors that impact on the viability of the state and the well-being of the people. The monograph then explores two contemporary case studies, Panama and Venezuela, to determine how these theories are made manifest in Latin America. The monograph continues with an analysis of the SOUTHCOM Theater Engagement Plan to determine the extent the plan is informed by the application of a conceptual framework that exposes the current political, social, economic, and military settings in Latin America as they relate to the security challenges that exist in the region. The monograph concludes that application of theory is essential in contemplating the strategic setting in countries like Venezuela and Panama. Just as important, the U.S. military must gain the support of the interagency in order to facilitate better planning and execution of TEP. Failure to bring to bear all the instruments of national power means SOUTHCOM may face the possibility of intra-state conflict ushering in a new round of military interventions and military rule in Latin America.