Anticipated series average monthly price of gold in using the time series of software Minitab

Shaban Mohammadi,Mohammad Khademi

doi:10.14419/ijaes.v3i1.4397

Abstract

We can study the statistics, basic research to get the needs arising in different fields get considered.after knowing the statistics obtained from the trust issue is investigated, which is considered to be important. procedures because it is true that the correct result is achieved. and concluded with a detailed study on the mode of research is to identify the needs of current and non-current sources can be required by a suitable method found.the problem considered in this study in relation to the expected range of average monthly price of gold on the London market in terms of dollars.we are gathered here with the predicted theoretical and practical knowledge to study and time series methods described above.

Highlights

Anticipated series of the average monthly price of gold: Monthly data relating to the supply price of one ounce of gold in dollar terms during the London Metal Market 1968 - 2007 AD, the site has been kitco.com as follows
Using the Box-Jencks, ARIMA modeling strategies to identify, we can make it on the Sri projected average monthly price of gold on the London market in 1968, and 2007 put
We set the values for twelve months. we expect the average monthly price of gold. to do this, open another window and ARIMA model, ARIMA [3, 1] it will fit. click on the option forecasts at the bottom of the window and the window opened at a number of 12, we entered the lead. origin box to specify the starting point forecast. if this is something to write predictions of the end of the series will be produced. storage can be predicted values and the predictions of the store. the forecast for the twelve months will be using this model as follows: To view the predicted values in the graph in the main, window

Summary

Introduction

The future of those who plan appropriately for it. Merchants, institution or organization should be given to successful planning necessary to predict the future position to do it. These methods can turn the past experience to predict future events. Statistics relating to a variable that is expected to be available in the last period time series statistics say so. The purpose of a time series, a collection of statistical data that are collected at regular intervals equal. These data and the statistical methods used to analyze the time series is called. Forecasting is an important element in management decisions, because any decision on the nature of the final performance of a sequence of events that occur subsequent decision. Because management systems for planning and controlling the operations of an organization typically enjoy a forecast function.

Anticipated series of the average monthly price of gold

Winters smoothing data method is as follows

Conclusion