Anticipated Election Result and Protest Voting: Why and When Canadian Voters Signal Discontent

Christian H Schimpf

doi:10.1017/s0008423919000325

Abstract

AbstractThis article investigates how Canadian voters react to a perceived lack of quality provided by their most preferred parties and how the anticipated election outcome conditions the reactions. The central argument is that a lack of quality motivates voters to signal their discontent by voting insincerely—that is, they cast a protest vote. The effect is expected to be moderated by the anticipated constituency result. The arguments are tested with two-wave panel survey data from the 2015 Canadian federal election, collected by the Making Electoral Democracy Work (MEDW) project. The results support the central argument but remain inconclusive about the expected moderating effects.

Highlights

While many Canadians vote with their hearts and cast their ballot for the party they prefer most, a reasonable share of people in every election deviates by casting an insincere vote
The arguments are tested with two-wave panel survey data from the 2015 Canadian federal election, collected by the Making Electoral Democracy Work (MEDW) project
Because the spotlight in these studies is on whom disenchanted voters choose, we know less about the first step of protest voting—namely, why and when voters decide to act on their discontent and cast an insincere vote (Birch and Dennison, 2019; Weber, 2011)

Summary

Introduction

While many Canadians vote with their hearts and cast their ballot for the party they prefer most, a reasonable share of people in every election deviates by casting an insincere vote. Schimpf insincere voting is a form of strategic voting in which voters abandon their most preferred party if it stands little chance of winning the constituency seat (see, for example, Blais, 2002; Merolla and Stephenson, 2007). Because the spotlight in these studies is on whom disenchanted voters choose, we know less about the first step of protest voting—namely, why and when voters decide to act on their discontent and cast an insincere vote (Birch and Dennison, 2019; Weber, 2011). Understanding how and when protest voting occurs addresses timely questions, as both Canadian political pundits and experts regularly note that fake news (Bryden, 2019) and populism (Graves and Valpy, 2018) are playing a greater role in contemporary Canadian politics, leading to an unstable political climate that may lead angry citizens to cast protest votes

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion