Anthropogenic warming has exacerbated droughts in southern Europe since the 1850s

Abstract

Widespread and frequent droughts have affected most parts of Europe over recent years, but it remains unclear when this synchronous drying trend began and how it has been influenced by anthropogenic forcing. Here we reconstruct and explore the history of drought in southern Europe over the past 300 years using an annual record of tree-ring oxygen isotopes from a site in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The reconstruction suggests that the onset of the drying trend in southern Europe occurred around the 1850s, which is consistent with previous studies demonstrating the extensive and long-lasting drying across central and western European areas. The evidence from CMIP6 model and reanalysis data demonstrates that anthropogenic warming has enhanced the strength of land–atmosphere coupling and exacerbated the widespread drying trend since the 1850s.