Abstract
White rhinoceros (rhinos) is a keystone conservation species and also provides revenue for protection agencies. Restoring or mimicking the outcomes of impeded ecological processes allows reconciliation of biodiversity and financial objectives. We evaluate the consequences of white rhino management removal, and in recent times, poaching, on population persistence, regional conservation outcomes and opportunities for revenue generation. In Kruger National Park, white rhinos increased from 1998 to 2008. Since then the population may vary non-directionally. In 2010, we estimated 10,621 (95% CI: 8,767–12,682) white rhinos using three different population estimation methods. The desired management effect of a varying population was detectable after 2008. Age and sex structures in sink areas (focal rhino capture areas) were different from elsewhere. This comes from relatively more sub-adults being removed by managers than what the standing age distribution defined. Poachers in turn focused on more adults in 2011. Although the effect of poaching was not detectable at the population level given the confidence intervals of estimates, managers accommodated expected poaching annually and adapted management removals. The present poaching trend predicts that 432 white rhinos may be poached in Kruger during 2012. The white rhino management model mimicking outcomes of impeded ecological processes predicts 397 rhino management removals are required. At present poachers may be doing “management removals,” but conservationists have no opportunity left to contribute to regional rhino conservation strategies or generate revenue through white rhino sales. In addition, continued trends in poaching predict detectable white rhino declines in Kruger National Park by 2016. Our results suggest that conservationists need innovative approaches that reduce financial incentives to curb the threats that poaching poses to several conservation values of natural resources such as white rhinos.
Highlights
Iconic species that have valuable assets, such as horns or pelts, suffer greatly from human persecution [1]
Data Analyses We focused our analyses on data collated since 1998 when white rhino survey information was spatially explicit and poaching and removal statistics were well kept
We identified the year that poaching exceeds management removals as the time when conservation value reflected as contributions to other populations of revenue gains through game sales, stops
Summary
Iconic species that have valuable assets, such as horns or pelts, suffer greatly from human persecution [1]. African megaherbivores epitomize threats posed by such human persecution. The use of ivory, for instance, has for centuries influenced elephant Loxodonta africana abundance and behavior [2], while perceptions about medicinal properties of rhinoceros (rhino) horn [3] made several rhino species lucrative targets [4]. Modern commercialization as well as technological advances facilitated the exploitation of biological resources [5]. The end result is that, globally, biological exploitation is a key driver of declines in a range of taxa [6]. Most notably are Africa’s large mammals, even in protected areas [7]
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