Anthropogenic Fingerprint on Recent Changes in Typhoon Heavy Rainfall beyond Tipping-Point

Abstract

The impact of climate change on typhoon is of great concern in the East Asia. In particular, typhoon heavy rainfall has a destructive impact on our society and economy since they are many megacities along the coastal regions. Although observations suggest significant changes in typhoon heavy rainfall, the contribution of anthropogenic forcing has not been determined.In this study, we show that anthropogenic global warming has a substantial impact on the observed changes in typhoon heavy rainfall in the western North Pacific region. Observational data show that, in general, typhoon heavy rainfall has increased (decreased) in coastal East Asia (tropical western North Pacific) during latter half of 20th Century and onward. A similar spatial distribution is found in the “Anthropogenic fingerprint”, difference between Earth systems with and without human-induced greenhouse gas emission, from a set of large ensemble climate simulations. This provides evidence to support that the significant increase in the frequency of typhoon heavy rainfall along coastal East Asia is not explained solely by natural variability. Further, the results show that since mid-1970s, the signal of “Anthropogenic fingerprint” has been increasing rapidly and departs from natural variability in early-2000s.Reference:Utsumi, N., & Kim, H. (2022). Observed influence of anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclone heavy rainfall. Nature Climate Change, 12(5), 436–440. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01344-2