Anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds in China

Abstract

Inventories of emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) in China are reported for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, and 2020. For 1990 and 1995, historical activity data were assembled for more than 70 processes that lead to the release of NMVOC. Appropriate emission factors were developed, based on Western, Asian and Chinese experience. It is estimated that emissions were 11.1 Tg in 1990 and 13.1 Tg in 1995, principally from the combustion of biofuels and coal in small combustors. All emissions are presented at provincial level. Using appropriate growth factors derived from anticipated economic, population, and lifestyle changes, and factoring in regulatory changes and technology improvements, we estimate that emissions could grow to 15.6 Tg in 2000, 17.2 Tg in 2010, and 18.2 Tg in 2020. Though activity growth rates are much higher than these increases would imply, technology improvements mediate the increases. Emissions from solvent use, paint use, and transport become increasingly important as time goes on. The sectoral distribution and per capita level of China's emissions are compared with those of other countries. Finally, gridded NMVOC emission fields are presented at 1°×1° resolution, and speciation of the emissions into 16 chemical types is reported.