Anthropogenic effects on the subtropical jet in the Southern Hemisphere: aerosols versus long-lived greenhouse gases

Abstract

We use single-forcing historical simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model to compare the effects of anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) and increasing long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) on simulated winter circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Our primary focus is on the subtropical jet, which is an important source of baroclinic instability, especially in the Australasian region, where the speed of the jet is largest. For the period 1950 to 2005, our simulations suggest that AAs weaken the jet, whereas increasing LLGHGs strengthen the jet. The different responses are explained in terms of thermal wind balance: increasing LLGHGs preferentially warm the tropical mid-troposphere and upper troposphere, whereas AAs have a similar effect of opposite sign. In the mid-troposphere, the warming (cooling) effect of LLGHGs (AAs) is maximal between 20S and 30S; this coincides with the descending branch of the Hadley circulation, which may advect temperature changes from the tropical upper troposphere to the subtropics of the SH. It follows that LLGHGs (AAs) increase (decrease) the mid-tropospheric temperature gradient between low latitudes and the SH mid-latitudes. The strongest effects are seen at longitudes where the southward branches of the Hadley cell in the upper troposphere are strongest, notably at those that correspond to Asia and the western Pacific warm pool.