Anthropogenic–biogenic interaction amplifies warming from emission reduction over the southeastern US

Abstract

A decline of surface biogenic secondary organic aerosols through the mediation of reduced anthropogenic aerosols has been recognized as an air quality co-benefit of anthropogenic emission control over the southeastern US. However, the climate impacts of this anthropogenic–biogenic interaction remain poorly understood. Here, we identified a substantial decline of summertime aerosol loading aloft over the southeastern US in recent decades through the interaction, which leads to a stronger decline in column-integrated aerosol optical depth and a greater increase in radiative fluxes over the southeastern than northeastern US, different from trends of anthropogenic emissions and near-surface aerosol loading. The anthropogenic–biogenic interaction is shown to explain more than 60% of the coherent increasing trend of 5.3 Wm−2decade−1 in clear-sky surface downward radiative fluxes. We show that current climate models fail to represent this interaction. The interaction is further projected to amplify the positive radiative forcing from emission control by 42.3% regionally over the southeastern US and globally by 5.4% in 2050 under RCP4.5 compared to 2005. This amplification effect implies greater challenges to achieving the Paris Agreement temperature targets with continuous emission control in future.