Abstract
City growth goes together with the development of infrastructure, and the power network is one of the most relevant towards economic development. The study of urban infrastructure through the analysis of anthropization coupled with power network growth can produce a tool that supports sustainable infrastructure planning, both economic and environmental. The case study focuses on Ambato, Ecuador, in the period from 1950 to 2019, and assesses quantitatively the changes in the city layout and the evolution of its power network. The data are adjusted to a sigmoid-type objective function through a non-linear least squares problem, that is solved using the Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) method. Anthropization data show how the urban area grew during the study period: 37% (1950–1960), 53% (1960–1970), 80% (1970–1980), 35% (1980–1990), 39% (1990–2000), 38% (2000–2010), and 11% (2010–2019), mostly at the expense of agricultural land. The forecast for new power network users by 2050 yields a result of 203,630 total users with a population density of 4850 people/km2. The conclusion is that this type of analysis can help city planners and decision makers further understand city and infrastructure growth dynamics and produce policies that bolster sustainable city growth.
Highlights
IntroductionService networks (transport, electricity, communications, gas, water) are the backbone of any territorial organization
Service networks are the backbone of any territorial organization
The electrical infrastructure was analysed using historical data, which set the ground to predict that in 2050 the urban area and the power network will enter a phase of densification, and possibly that the users will begin to actively participate in the network as prosumers, creating a new cycle of development and adoption of technology [73]
Summary
Service networks (transport, electricity, communications, gas, water) are the backbone of any territorial organization. Urban anthropization illustrates how service networks remain tied to their territory throughout the decades due to high capital investment and the way these networks are operated, maintained, and expanded. These networks change and adapt to technological breakthroughs, exogenous factors, and population needs [1]. Modelling the anthropization process of a city explains its historical formation as a physical object, delineates urban growth through time, and indicates how it was managed [2]. Even though Latin America cities follow the model of European and US cities, the urbanization process is marked by a double opposition: New World (as opposed to Europe) and Latin (as opposed to Saxon) [3,4]. The key for their future development should come from comparative studies of cities within the same context, rather than from using external models
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