Abstract

The aim of this research is to study the dynamics of land use in the Sorobouly and Pâ classified forests and the factors responsible for these dynamics. These factors are both natural and anthropogenic. In the province of Balé, demographic and pastoral pressures have increased the level of degradation of the classified forests to over 20%. The methodology used is based on a diachronic analysis of Landsat images from 1998 to 2017 and on field surveys. A projection of land-use dynamics using the Markov and CA Markov cellular automaton was carried out with a view to providing decision-makers with the necessary data for decision-making. The results of image processing in 1998, 2007 and 2017 show a faster rate of degradation in the Sorobouly classified forest than in the Pâ classified forest. Dwellings and fields occupied 53.6% of the Sorobouly classified forest in 2017. Numerous human and natural factors are responsible for this regressive change in vegetation cover. The land-use simulation predicts a vegetation cover of 32.16% of the Sorobouly CF and 97% of the Pâ CF by 2027, according to the trend scenario. The green environmental and economic scenarios developed offer sustainable management alternatives for the Sorobouly classified forest

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