Another outlook to sector-level energy consumption in Pakistan from dominant energy sources and correlation with economic growth.

Abstract

The present study seeks to investigate the sector-level energy consumption of oil and natural gas and to explore the linkage between economic growth, households, agriculture, industry, power, fertilizers, and commercial sector in Pakistan for the period of 1980-2016. The energy sector of Pakistan is facing severe crisis from the last few years due to inadequate production and supply. Long-lasting deficits of natural gas and oil, the two supreme types of fuel in Pakistan, had detrimental consequences for the growth as well as for the economic development. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method and Granger causality test under vector error correction model (VECM) were employed to check the association among the variables. Furthermore, the innovative accounting method was used to investigate the responsiveness of each variable to another within the study framework. Empirical results show long-run association among the variables, as oil consumption in the agriculture and power sector show a positive effect on Pakistan's economic growth. Similarly, energy consumption from natural gas in the households and fertilizers as well as in the industry sector has had a constructive association with economic growth. In contrast, energy consumption from oil in the households and industry sectors has adverse association with economic growth, while natural gas consumption in the commercial sector has negative linkage with economic growth. Possible steps should be taken by the Government of Pakistan to enhance the production of oil and natural gas from other alternatives to meet the requirements of these sectors.