Anomalous Streamflow and Groundwater-Level Changes Before the 1999 M7.6 Chi–Chi Earthquake in Taiwan: Possible Mechanisms

Abstract

Streamflow recorded by a stream gauge located 4 km from the epicenter of the 1999 M7.6 Chi–Chi earthquake in central Taiwan showed a large and rapid anomalous increase of 124 m3/s starting 4 days before the earthquake. This increase was followed by a comparable co-seismic drop to below the background level for 8 months. In addition, groundwater-levels recorded at a well 1.5 km east of the seismogenic fault showed an anomalous rise 2 days before the earthquake, and then a unique 4-cm drop beginning 3 h before the earthquake. The anomalous streamflow increase is attributed to gravity-driven groundwater discharge into the creek through the openings of existing fractures in the steep creek banks crossed by the upstream Shueilikun fault zone, as a result of pre-earthquake crustal buckling. The continued tectonic movement and buckling, together with the downward flow of water in the crust, may have triggered the occurrence of some shallow slow-slip events in the Shueilikun and other nearby fault zones. When these events propagate down-dip to decollement, where the faults merges with the seismogenic Chelungpu fault, they may have triggered other slow-slip events propagating toward the asperity at the hypocenter and the Chelungpu fault. These events may then have caused the observed groundwater-level anomaly and helped to trigger the earthquake.