Anomalous intraseasonal events in the thermocline ridge region of Southern Tropical Indian Ocean and their regional impacts

Abstract

The present study explores the mechanisms responsible for the strong intraseasonal cooling events in the Thermocline Ridge region of the southwestern Indian Ocean. Air sea interface and oceanic processes associated with Madden Julian Oscillation are studied using an Ocean General Circulation Model and satellite observations. Sensitivity experiments are designed to understand the ocean response to intraseasonal forcing with a special emphasis on 2002 cooling events, which recorded the strongest intraseasonal perturbations during the last well‐observed decade. This event is characterized by anomalous Walker circulation over the tropical Indian Ocean and persistent intraseasonal heat flux anomaly for a longer duration than is typical for similar events (but without any favorable preconditioning of ocean basic state at the interannual timescale). The model heat budget analysis during 1996 to 2007 revealed an in‐phase relationship between atmospheric fluxes associated with Madden Julian Oscillation and the subsurface oceanic processes during the intense cooling events of 2002. The strong convection, reduced shortwave radiation and increased evaporation have contributed to the upper ocean heat loss in addition to the slower propagation of active phase of convection, which supported the integration of longer duration of forcing. The sensitivity experiments revealed that dynamic response of ocean through entrainment at the intraseasonal timescale primarily controls the biological response during the event, with oceanic interannual variability playing a secondary role. This study further speculates the role of oceanic intraseasonal variability in the 2002 droughts over Indian subcontinent.