Annual estimates of global and national CO2 emissions from fossil fuels: Tracking revisions to the United Nations energy statistics database input energy data

Abstract

Abstract Estimates of global and national emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are important for scientific understanding and public policy on global climate change. Estimates published annually often see revisions of estimates from previous years. Revisions of data on CO2 emissions reflect revisions of the energy data from which CO2 emissions are estimated. Learning is taking place as missing values are compiled, estimated values are revised, and data management systems are updated. Revisions are a frequent feature of the database. Revisions are widespread among countries, commodities, and transactions. We have examined 11 annual reports of the United Nations Energy Statistics Database (those published from 2010 to 2020) to see in the detailed statistics what values are being changed and what are the magnitudes and patterns of change. They are most common in recent years, among developed countries, and among data on liquid fuels. Revisions are generally small and there are no indications of systematic manipulation or bias. Revisions of specific numbers are believed to represent improvements in accuracy but lack of revisions does not point toward accuracy. This examination of revisions does not permit by itself a quantitative estimate of the data uncertainty but it does suggest that the estimates of global and national totals of CO2 emissions are generally consistent and that both absolute values and trends are reliable over time and sufficiently accurate for scientific understanding and public policy.