Announcement, construction or delivery: When does value uplift occur for residential properties? Evidence from the Gold Coast Light Rail system in Australia

Abstract

This paper examines the timing of the increases in land value on residential housing following the delivery of the Light Rail Transit (LRT) system in the Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. This paper thus addresses one of the most pertinent questions for policy and practice around the timing, shape and conditions for increases in land value or value uplift. Increasingly governments face funding constraints in the implementation of new infrastructure and so are keen to understand if capturing this land value uplift is a practical proposition to augment or provide funding for new transport infrastructure. This in turn depends on knowing how much uplift is generated, when it occurs, the size of the catchment effect, and the contours of the effects with increasing distance from the public transport facility. This paper uses a Difference-in-Differences model to show differences in impacts for properties, as measured by property prices, in catchment areas versus those in control areas across time. The results show property prices in the catchment areas start to increase after announcement with the highest increment of increase being found after solid financial commitment is made by government. Property prices then slow during construction and the operation period. These results provide an evidence base for operators, planners and government sectors in their planning for future LRT systems and for quantifying the potential funding that can be achieved through capturing the increases in land value.