ANN-Based Estimation of Low-Latitude Monthly Ocean Latent Heat Flux by Ensemble Satellite and Reanalysis Products.

Abstract

Ocean latent heat flux (LHF) is an essential variable for air–sea interactions, which establishes the link between energy balance, water and carbon cycle. The low-latitude ocean is the main heat source of the global ocean and has a great influence on global climate change and energy transmission. Thus, an accuracy estimation of high-resolution ocean LHF over low-latitude area is vital to the understanding of energy and water cycle, and it remains a challenge. To reduce the uncertainties of individual LHF products over low-latitude areas, four machine learning (ML) methods (Artificial Neutral Network (ANN), Random forest (RF), Bayesian Ridge regression and Random Sample Consensus (RANSAC) regression) were applied to estimate low-latitude monthly ocean LHF by using two satellite products (JOFURO-3 and GSSTF-3) and two reanalysis products (MERRA-2 and ERA-I). We validated the estimated ocean LHF using 115 widely distributed buoy sites from three buoy site arrays (TAO, PIRATA and RAMA). The validation results demonstrate that the performance of LHF estimations derived from the ML methods (including ANN, RF, BR and RANSAC) were significantly better than individual LHF products, indicated by R2 increasing by 3.7–46.4%. Among them, the LHF estimation using the ANN method increased the R2 of the four-individual ocean LHF products (ranging from 0.56 to 0.79) to 0.88 and decreased the RMSE (ranging from 19.1 to 37.5) to 11 W m−2. Compared to three other ML methods (RF, BR and RANSAC), ANN method exhibited the best performance according to the validation results. The results of relative uncertainty analysis using the triangle cornered hat (TCH) method show that the ensemble LHF product using ML methods has lower relative uncertainty than individual LHF product in most area. The ANN was employed to implement the mapping of annual average ocean LHF over low-latitude at a spatial resolution of 0.25° during 2003–2007. The ocean LHF fusion products estimated from ANN methods were 10–30 W m−2 lower than those of the four original ocean products (MERRA-2, JOFURO-3, ERA-I and GSSTF-3) and were more similar to observations.