Análisis de la serie de captura de sardina Monterrey, Sardinops sagax en el Golfo de California, México

Abstract

Background: The Pacific sardine is a small pelagic fish which supports the most important fishery at national scale. Goals: This paper analyzes the catch information generated by the commercial fleet operating in the Gulf of California from 1969 to 2016 in order to identify the catch trends and the presence of the harmonic components that is related to environmental variability. Methods: Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) was applied to the time series in order to establish the dominant frequencies. The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method was used to separate the trend and harmonic components. Each harmonic component was correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Solar Activity data. Results: The FFT showed dominant frequencies at 7 and 11 years. An increasing linear trend was identified from 1969 to 2008 with a decreasing linear segment from 2009 to 2016, as well as two harmonic components of different frequencies (7 and 11 years respectively). The trend and the two harmonic components explain 87.49% of the total variance of the capture. The first and second harmonic components correlated positively with SOI (r= 0.2921, r= 0.3870 respectively), while the second harmonic component correlated negatively with solar activity (r= -0.5313). There were no correlations with the PDO. Conclusions: The fluctuations of Pacific sardine in the Gulf of California are mainly due to three factors: increased catch, the influence of the El Niño events and the influence of the solar activity cycle.