ANÁLISES DA EXECUÇÃO ORÇAMENTÁRIA DO ESTADO DO AMAZONAS (2016 – 2023) SOB A ÓTICA DA TEORIA DO EQUILÍBRIO PONTUADO

Abstract

This study aims to examine budget execution in the State of Amazonas between 2016 and 2023, using the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory as a basis to identify periods of stability and abrupt changes. The methodology used was quantitative, with analyzes conducted based on data updated until December 31, 2023. To assess the normality of the distributions, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk tests were applied, with a confidence level of 5%. The results indicated that budget decisions, both in expenses by nature groups and by government functions, showed atypical behavior. The presence of periods of stability with interruptions was observed, which validates the central hypothesis that the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory is applicable to the analysis of budget variations in Amazonas. It was found that, although budgets are prepared incrementally, their execution reveals an interrupted pattern of stability. This research advances the literature on the execution of budgetary policies by including the analysis of total revenue and expenses paid by personnel group.Theoretical contributions cover discussions on budget preparation in Brazil, the impacts of party changes on budget execution and financial imbalance.