Anfibios amenazados de Uruguay: efectividad de las áreas protegidas ante el cambio climático

Abstract

Climate change (CC) constitutes one of the main biodiversity threats. The effects of CC on species are apparent worldwide, with primarily poleward and upward shifts in species distribution. Due to their narrow distribution, threatened species are highly vulnerable to CC. In this context, protected areas (PA) could be key tools for adaptation to CC. Our aims were to study the effects of CC on the distribution and richness of the threatened and near threatened amphibians of Uruguay; and to evaluate the effectiveness of the National Network of Protected Areas (NNPA) at present and under future climate scenarios. To model the distribution of nine species, we obtained records from herpetological collections, scientific publications and GBIF, as well as current data and future climate projections of the General Circulation Model HadCM3 under the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios from Worldclim. To model species distribution we applied maximum entropy techniques (MAXENT). To evaluate the effectiveness of NNPA we conducted a gap analysis by overlaying PA with the distribution of species. The models indicate that the distribution of most amphibian species could expand in Uruguay in the future; except for Pleurodema bibroni y Melanophryniscus montevidensis. Local amphibian richness is predicted to increase, mainly in the northwest and east of the country. While amphibians studied are included in at least one PA, less than 2% of the distribution is actually covered by the NNPA, both currently and under CC scenarios; which it is a strong indicator of the inefficiency of the system. Although projected CC for this region would not constitute a major threat to amphibians studied, the scarce protection by the NNPA represents a risk to the conservation of herpetofauna facing the other components of global change.(Download Additional Information: http://goo.gl/U3krcP)