Abstract
The ANEMI model is an integrated assessment model of global change that emphasizes the role of water resources. The model is based on the principles of system dynamics simulation to analyze changes in the Earth system using feedback processes. Securing water resources for the future is a key issue of global change, and ties into global systems of population growth, climate change, carbon cycle, hydrologic cycle, economy, energy production, land use and pollution generation. Here the third iteration of the model–ANEMI3 is described, along with the methods used for parameter estimation and model testing. The main differences between ANEMI3 and previous versions include: (i) implementation of the energy-economy system based on the principles of system dynamics simulation; (ii) incorporation of water supply as an additional sector in the global economy that parallels the production of energy; (iii) inclusion of climate change effects on land yield and potentially arable land for food production, and (iv) addition of nitrogen and phosphorus based nutrient cycles as indicators of global water quality, which affect the development of surface water supplies. The model is intended for analyzing long-term global feedbacks which drive global change. Because of this, there are limitations related to the spatial scale that is used. However, the model’s simplicity can be considered a strength, as it allows for the driving feedbacks to be more easily identified. The model in its current form allows for a variety of scenarios to be created to address global issues such as climate change from an integrated perspective, or to examine the change in one model sector on Earth system behaviour. The endogenous structure of the model allows for global change to be driven entirely by model structure rather than exogenous inputs. The new additions to the ANEMI3 model are found to capture long term trends associated with global change, while allowing for the development of water supplies to be represented using an integrated approach considering global economy and surface water quality.
Highlights
The concept of global change becomes increasingly important as the Earth system components such as population, economic productivity, climate, food production, and hydrology are interlinked through dynamic non-linear feedback processes [2]
The following sections provide a review of integrated assessment models and system dynamics in the literature, a description of the model sectors and feedbacks, information on parameter estimation and testing of the model, and limitations of ANEMI3
We define each sector as being either endogenous, exogenous, or not applicable. This comparison shows that all models have climate, energy, and emissions sectors in common. This is due to the issue of climate change being one of the first issues to be assessed from an integrated perspective at the global scale
Summary
The concept of global change becomes increasingly important as the Earth system components such as population, economic productivity, climate, food production, and hydrology are interlinked through dynamic non-linear feedback processes [2]. Assessment of various aspects of global change often requires the use of models from different domains and a way to combine them so that the relationships and interactions between these models can be studied. A major rework of the energy-economy sector has allowed for dynamics of water supply development to be incorporated alongside energy production In this model, the development of water supplies both conventional (surface water and groundwater) and alternative (desalination and water reuse) are included within the Earth system using an integrated, feedback-based approach. The following sections provide a review of integrated assessment models and system dynamics in the literature, a description of the model sectors and feedbacks, information on parameter estimation and testing of the model, and limitations of ANEMI3
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