Abstract
The reliable operation of urban road traffic is the vision of urban development. The reliability measurement method with travel time as a performance index is the starting point of this study. Based on the travel time data, we have studied the shortcomings of existing travel time reliability indicators. Most of them simplify or even ignore the information of traffic performance thresholds. According to the characteristics of the actual urban road network, we proposed measurement of travel time reliability under uncertain random environment, that is, the travel time belief reliability. By extracting the information of traffic service subject and object, this method takes into account the influence of cognitive and random uncertainty on reliability. Next, we established the belief reliability model of travel task under the uncertain random road environment. The model considers the route selection, departure status and road conditions and gives the route selection algorithm under a time-varying road network. In addition, the impact of road objective factors and driving state factors on the travel time threshold is discussed by using the uncertainty regression analysis method. Finally, we took the actual travel task in Beijing as an example to verify the feasibility and practicability of the model and algorithm.
Highlights
In recent years, urban road traffic has become more and more complex, and travelers have connectivity and short-term requirements for road traffic services, and pay more and more attention to travel reliability
Tardy trips measure(Lomax and Margiotta 2003) represent the travel time unreliability by using the number of trips that results in late arrivals, such as the misery index (MI) (Lomax and Margiotta 2003), which measures the difference between the longest travel time and the mean travel time
It is assumed that the travel time threshold is a variable
Summary
Urban road traffic has become more and more complex, and travelers have connectivity and short-term requirements for road traffic services, and pay more and more attention to travel reliability. Many different quantifiable measures based on different definitions of travel time reliability have been proposed They can be divided into two main categories according to the calculation method: Statistic measures and probability measures. It was regarded as a constant or multiple of standard deviation or quantile of travel time This is a helpless method because it lacks information on the service level of the road network in the definition and ignores information on the acceptability of travelers, which will impact on the acceptable time threshold(Xiaofei et al 2014). These travel time reliability measures are generally analyzed though travel time data They extracted information about the performance of urban road traffic, but simplified or ignored the road facility factors and the traveler's travel status factors. We give an example to verify the travel time belief reliability measure
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