Analyzing the Russian economy's development: Trends in the consolidated account and real GDP

Abstract

Subject. The article investigates the development of Russia's economy. Objectives. The purpose is to identify conditions for the Russian economy development in the context of changes in the consolidated account at current prices and GDP in constant prices. Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using the statistical analysis method. Results. The analysis of trends in the consolidated account at current prices and real GDP unveils conditions for the Russian economy development. I define the trigger for the transition of the Russian economy from the unmanageable to the difficult-to-manage rates of growth (RG) of GDP in constant prices, and establish its limits within the limits of RG of Secondary Distribution of Income Account, Use, Current Transfers Transferred to the 'Rest of the World'. The limits are mediated by major exporters of hydrocarbons and armaments, which operate on a transfer basis, undermining the ability to regulate the real sector of the economy through the Generation of Income Account, Use, Subsidies for Production and Import, Other Subsidies for Production and Capital Transactions Account, Use, Changes in Inventories. Conclusions. The findings expand the scope of knowledge and form new competences of the authorities to make management decisions on the Russian economy development by influencing the consolidated account indicators in current prices and GDP in constant prices, as part of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.