Analyzing the relationship between oil prices and renewable energy sources in Italy during the first COVID-19 wave through quantile and wavelet analyses

Abstract

The paper aims to analyze the evolution of oil prices and renewable energy production in Italy during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis with daily data for the period January 2020-September 2020 through several time series techniques (long memory test and spectral causality analysis) and Wavelet Analysis tools. Italy has been the first country all over the world to be severely hit by the pandemic, reacting immediately with strong restrictive measures. The applied results show that oil prices and renewable energy sources were highly correlated during the pandemic shock. Moreover, causality tests reveal a unidirectional flow running from solar, hydro, and wind sources to oil prices, highlighting the relevance of the effect of the energy transition on the oil market. It is also imperative for a country that is a net energy resources importer to achieve a more sustainable way of production and accelerate the energy transition process, especially during phases of high fossil fuel prices.