Analyzing the preferences of flood victims on post flood public houses (PFPH): Application of a hybrid choice model to the floodplains of southern Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change related natural hazards cause significant suffering and economic damage. The aftermath of losing one's home leaves people facing difficult decisions. Resettling those affected by flood disasters remains a complex and uncertain process. This study aims to shed light on the factors influencing the decision to choose post-flood public houses (PFPH) in flood-prone areas. Using a stated preference (SP) survey conducted in the floodplains of Southern Pakistan, this research analyzes the impact of policy variables in conjunction with latent psychometric factors on people's choices. A hybrid choice model (HCM) is developed to assess the influence of two latent variables: risk perception and place attachment. The findings indicate that individuals with higher risk perception are more inclined to choose PFPH, whereas those with stronger place attachment tend to opt for rebuilding their houses at the same location. Compensation for PFPH was observed to have a positive impact on the choice of PFPH, while the distance from the village center, reflecting how far they would be relocated from their current village center, had a negative impact on choosing PFPH. The calculation of willingness-to-accept measures confirmed that for every 1 KM increase in the distance from the village center, respondents would require additional compensation of PKR 24,558.45 (approximately $87.28). Furthermore, multiple policy scenario tests were conducted to economically evaluate the impact of latent variables and SP attributes on the predicted share of PFPH. The results underscore the significant influence of place attachment attitudes and the distance to the village center attribute on the share of PFPH.