Analyzing the Possibility of Violent Conflict in the Middle East Economies Using Determinants of Global Conflict Risk Index with an Integrated Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Making Model

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to analyze the risk of violent conflict with the global conflict risk factors in the Middle East economies by using an integrated fuzzy decision approach. For this purpose, five different dimensions and 24 different criteria are defined by analyzing similar studies in the literature. The dataset is borrowed from the European Commission, and experts appointed for the linguistic evaluation of each dimension and criterion. Additionally, fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology is used to weigh dimensions and criteria and Multi-objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) approach is considered to rank the countries with respect to the conflict risk. Social dimension was concluded to have the highest importance of the Global Conflict Risk Index. Moreover, Syria, Libya, and Saudi Arabia were identified as the countries that have high conflict risk. Because these countries have high risk of facing conflict in the future, it is strongly recommended that they should primarily focus on social factors in order to minimize this risk.