Analyzing the long-term performance of minority and nonminority students: A tale of two studies

Abstract

This is a comparative longitudinal analysis of the performance of minority and nonminority students in four successive entering classes at a highly selective college. Graduation rates were comparable, but the two groups were found to be as sharply differentiated with respect to cumulative grade point average (GPA) at the end of 4 years as they were at the end of the first year. Unanticipated across-class increases in mean GPA relative to ability, greater for minority than for nonminority students, were found and their implications considered. The validity of admissions tests with respect to long-term cumulative GPA was comparable to that obtained when first-year GPA was used. Questions are raised regarding the possible effect on minority students of persistent minority-nonminority differences in academic performance, especially in settings in which the two groups are sharply differentiated on academic ability measures. Findings of a similarly designed study in a less selective setting are also considered.