Analyzing the impact of socio-environmental parameters on wheat and barley cultivation areas using the geographical detector model

Abstract

The national economy of Iranians depends greatly on agriculture. Wheat and barley are two strategic crops in Iran, where their scarcity can adversely affect people’s quality of life. Therefore, it is essential to analyze the climatic, humidity-related, and socioeconomic factors affecting the cultivation areas of these crops. This study analyzed the single and mutual effects of 17 parameters on wheat and barley cultivation areas in Iran within the 2007–2020 period. The geographical detector model (GDM) was used in RStudio to analyze the interactive effects of parameters. According to the results, topography had greater effects than other parameters on the cultivation areas of wheat. Spring precipitation had a larger impact with 26% of effects than winter precipitation (SC) with 24% of effects on the cultivation area of wheat. However, winter precipitation and temperature with 42% and 34% effects, respectively, had greater impacts than spring precipitation on the cultivation area of barley. NDVI and SC have the highest impact on the cultivated area of wheat and barley crops. Also, elevation is the most important parameter in wheat cultivation with 54% influence, and this product performs better in high altitudes, on the other hand, elevation is not a vital factor in barley. Also, the winter parameters have a greater effect on wheat than barley, and the average wheat harvest showed high performance in heavy snowfall lands. Also, the results showed that barley has a higher resistance to dry conditions. Moreover, socioeconomic parameters had more effects on barley than on wheat. In other words, livestock cover with 52% of effects had the greatest impact on the cultivation area of barley, whereas population with 36% of effects was ranked the third factor affecting the cultivation area of wheat. According to the interactive results of parameters, the interaction between elevation and NDVI was 88% in wheat. However, the interaction between population and livestock cover was 72% in barely. The optimal results of barley and wheat indicated that both crops had the largest cultivation areas at 22.9–24.9º C.