Analyzing the impact of smart grids on load profiles using multiple regression

Abstract

Various smart grid pilots are being initiated worldwide to explore the load-shifting capacity of residential households. Therefore, a clear need exists to identify how the results of these pilots can be evaluated. By modeling the dynamic behavior of the load, the relationship between the change in the consumers' load and the factors that induce that change can be clarified. In this paper, the results of the Dutch smart grid pilot project Your Energy Moment are analyzed. The aggregated load of the installed smart appliances, i.e. smart washing machines, is modeled using multiple regression. Subsequently, the same modeling approach is applied to model the washing machine load of a reference group not taking part in the pilot. The differences provide insight into the effect of the so-called smart grid input variables used to stimulate load shifting. The latter is considered essential input for the implementation of load management strategies that aim at affecting the consumption patterns of end-consumers.