Analyzing the Hydroelectricity Variability on Power Markets from a System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems Perspective: Seasonality and ENSO Phenomenon

José D. Morcillo,Carlos J. Franco,Fabiola Angulo

doi:10.3390/en13092381

José D. Morcillo, Carlos J. Franco + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/en13092381

Copy DOI

Abstract

In this paper, the variations in hydropower generation are addressed considering the seasonality and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) episodes. The dynamic hypothesis and the stock-flow structure of the Colombian electricity market were analyzed. Moreover, its dynamic behavior was analyzed by using Dynamic Systems tools aimed at providing deep insight into the system. The MATLAB/Simulink model was used to evaluate the Colombian electricity market. Since we combine System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems, this methodology provides a novel insight and a deeper analysis compared with System Dynamics models and can be easily implemented by policymakers to suggest improvements in regulation or market structures. We also provide a detailed description of the Colombian electricity market dynamics under a broad range of demand growth rate scenarios inspired by the bifurcation and control theory of Dynamic Systems.

Highlights

Electricity generation has become one of the most important topics because of the growing demand and its effects on the environment
To further test the accuracy of our simulation model, we decided to run it starting from 2017, so that part of the simulation time series and sensitivity analysis can be contrasted with the real data of the Colombian electricity market
We found that our simulations completely reflect the real system

Summary

Introduction

Electricity generation has become one of the most important topics because of the growing demand and its effects on the environment. Renewable energy is currently considered an alternative source of generation to counteract the undesired effects caused by fossil fuel technologies [2]. In this sense, the deployment of environmentally friendly sources of electricity generation grows in the short and medium terms [3], which, in turn, may require the adaptation of the electricity markets to their gradual implementation. Any source of generation dependent on intermittent and seasonal resources can be considered as a variable generation technology [4], which lacks a consistent source of energy. Seasonal resources are characterized by undergoing reductions or increases in their generation due to the climatic seasons, Energies 2020, 13, 2381; doi:10.3390/en13092381 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies

Objectives

Results

Conclusion