Analyzing the Effects of the Government Interventions Against the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in China

Abstract

Introduction: During the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the government interventions used to contain the outbreak in China are effective. However, the effects of different interventions and their combinations can’t be directly observed and are currently understood only through process-based simulations.Method: In this study, we gathered chronological data on the implementation of the government interventions for nine cities of China from 11 October 2020 to 4 February 2021. Aimed at four specific goals, we proposed the implementation framework of the government interventions based on the SEIR model. Combined with two external datasets, we used the data-driven approach to analyze the individual and combined effects of five themes of government interventions implemented in these nine cities. Results: Supported by extensive empirical validation, our results indicated some specific government interventions (including masks, environmental cleaning and disinfection, and periodic testing) each reduced transmission considerably, which has been underestimated previously. Linked the COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics with the implementation timelines and sequences of the government intervention combinations, we detected that the earlier implementation of a specific government intervention combination (including targeted testing, quarantine on close contacts, tracing and tracking of close contacts) was correlated well with the shortened local outbreak periods and the reduced cumulative reported cases, which provided the consistent evidence that this early implementation achieved the strongest and most rapid effect on controlling COVID-19, especially at the early period of the local outbreak.Conclusion: These findings provided important scientific information for decisions regarding which government interventions should be implemented, and they also supported policy-making for more than 223 countries that are fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic.