Analyzing the Effects of Leverage and Hedging on the Equity Valuation of Oil and Gas Producers in the Current Commodity-Price Cycle

Abstract

Summary Although a severe drop in commodity prices was expected to adversely affect a financially leveraged producer, the variability of this effect across the universe of exploration and production (E&P) companies during the current downturn, which began in Autumn 2014, surprised industry participants. What factors caused the effect to be magnified for certain companies and muted for others? In examining 71 public E&P companies, we found a moderate correlation between a company's financial leverage and the loss of its equity value. Our study confirms that leveraged producers are exposed to the risk of debt-induced value loss in a downturn. Two other factors were studied for their influence on equity performance: the economics of a company's resource portfolio and the extent of its commodity-price hedging. To examine the effect of resource economics, we analyzed the finding-and-development (F&D) cost of producers and noticed statistically significant differences by hydrocarbon-producing regions. When controlled for the regional effect, the correlation between a company's financial leverage and the loss of its equity value substantially improved. The offsetting effect of a superior resource economics on the debt-induced value loss was evident. For example, the producers operating in the Permian Basin outperformed their similarly leveraged peers operating in the Williston Basin, a less-profitable region. A subset of financially leveraged companies significantly outperformed their similarly leveraged peers. These outperformers, termed here as “Leaders,” showcase a strong alignment between their financing and hedging activities. We observed evidence of the use of a continuous-hedging program through the price cycle by the Leaders. They responded soon to changes in their hedge positions, such as hedge roll-offs, rather than hedging when it is advantageous to do so. A key benefit of such a continuous-hedging program is the dollar-cost averaging of hedged prices, which appears to be an implicit goal of the Leaders. We contend that a leveraged producer must coordinate its hedging and financing policies to maintain an alignment between the hedged volume and the debt load. Endogeneity arises in the relationship between debt and hedges, with each influencing the other. An alignment can be achieved through the implementation of a continuous-hedging program factoring in annual production, operating cashflows, financial leverage, and hedged volumes. This paper takes the hedging debate for a leveraged producer beyond the realm of “to hedge or not to hedge” and addresses the question of “how much to hedge.”