Analyzing the Effects of Governmental Policy and Solar Power on Facilitating Carbon Neutralization in the Context of Energy Transition: A Four-Party Evolutionary Game Study

Abstract

For achieving carbon neutralization and promoting the coordinated development of solar and coal-fired power generations in the context of energy transition, this paper develops a public–private partnership project including the government, carbon exchange enterprise, solar thermal power plant and a coal-fired thermal power plant. Using the four-party evolutionary game theory method, the evolutionary stable strategies are evaluated. The influence estimate results of key factors show that a higher carbon emission penalty and a green electricity subsidy as well as a lower carbon trading tax rate will be beneficial to the carbon trading market, as well as facilitate carbon neutralization. In most instances, the government and carbon exchange enterprise can hold acceptable participating intention. For relatively suitable reference value ranges, the carbon emission quota sale price range of the solar thermal power plant sold to the carbon exchange enterprise is 5.5~6.0 USD/t, that of the carbon exchange enterprise sold to the coal-fired thermal power plant is 5.0~6.5 USD/t, that of the solar thermal power plant sold to the coal-fired thermal power plant is 5.0~5.5 USD/t, that sold to the coal-fired thermal power plant by outside organizations is 9.0~10.5 USD/t, and the carbon trading tax rate range is 6.0~6.2%.