Abstract
The peri-urban area (PUA) of the Greater Cairo Region (GCR) in Egypt has witnessed a rapid urban expansion during the last few years. This urban expansion has led to the loss of wide, areas of agriculture lands and the annexation of many peripheral villages into the boundary of the GCR. This study analyzed the driving factors causing the urban expansion in the GCR during the period 2007–2017 using the logistic regression model (LRM). Eight independent variables were applied in this model: distance to the nearest urban center, distance to the nearest center of regional services, distance to water streams, distance to the main agglomeration, distance to industrial areas, distance to nearest road, number of urban cells within a 3 × 3 cell window and population density. The analysis was conducted using LOGISTICREG module in Terrset software. This research showed that the population density and distance to the nearest road have the highest regression coefficients, 0.540 and 0.114, respectively, and were the most significant driving factors of urban expansion during the last 10 years (2007–2017). Moreover, based on the results of the LRM, a probability map of urban expansion in the PUA was created, which shows that most urban expansion would be around the existing urban areas and near roads. The relative operating characteristic (ROC) value of 0.93 indicates that the probability map of urban expansion is valid.
Highlights
Urban expansion (UE) is one of the urgent matters in developing countries, especially in light of the rapid increase of population [1,2,3]
This study identified eight driving factors causing the urban expansion within the peri-urban area (PUA) in the Greater Cairo Region (GCR), and analyzed their influence on the urban expansion process using logistic regression model (LRM)
The probability map generated from the model can be used to predict where urban expansion will occur
Summary
Urban expansion (UE) is one of the urgent matters in developing countries, especially in light of the rapid increase of population [1,2,3]. The PUA is generally known as a transitional zone between city and countryside [7,8,9,10,11] It can be found at the urban fringe along the edges of the built-up area and extends to encompass a scattered pattern of lower density villages within the rural area [12,13]. The issue of driving factors of the UE in the PUAs has been discussed from different perspectives through various case studies in the developing countries to understand the key factors of the UE and its influences. The main goal of this study was defining the driving factors of the UE within the PUAs in the Greater Cairo Region (GCR), and analyzing their influence on the UE process
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