Analyzing the Determinants of Trade Balance: An Empirical Investigation of Indonesia's Economic Dynamics

Abstract

The study investigates the determinants of Indonesia's trade balance focusing on five key factors: money supply, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, carbon dioxide emissions, and government expenditure. Utilizing secondary time-series data from 1990 to 2022 and employing vector error correction model analysis, the research reveals significant insights. In the short term, only the money supply notably influences trade balances, while the other factors show no significant impact. However, in the long term, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, carbon dioxide emissions, and government expenditure positively affect the trade balance, with the money supply displaying an insignificant impact. The study's conclusions offer policy suggestions to address these findings. These suggestions include putting policies in place to lower carbon emissions and encourage sustainable growth, making sure government funding for sustainable development initiatives is used effectively, luring foreign direct investment, keeping exchange rates stable, and being cautious when controlling the money supply to preserve price stability. The objective of these recommendations is to improve Indonesia's trade balance sustainability. However, the analysis admits its limitations in not accounting for all macroeconomic factors, such as GDP, interest rates, and industrial production, that affect trade balance. Notwithstanding these drawbacks, the study provides insightful information to help policymakers develop plans for enhancing the dynamics of Indonesia's trade balance.