Analyzing ship collision accidents in China: A framework based on the N-K model and Bayesian networks

Abstract

Maritime accidents are frequent in China, with collisions constituting a significant portion, leading to substantial casualties, financial losses, and environmental harm. Analyzing collision risk is crucial for safe shipping operations, as such accidents arise when multiple risk factors interact beyond certain thresholds. Thus, understanding the coupled relationships among these factors is essential for accident prevention. This study presents a quantitative coupling risk assessment approach for collisions using the N–K model and Bayesian networks (BNs). Through an analysis of 304 accident reports from the China Maritime Safety Administration (CMSA), four primary risk factors (human, ship, environment, and management) are identified. The N–K model quantifies the coupling degree between these factors, while a BN model further elucidates and quantifies the collision risk based on the calculations of N–K model. Validation of the BN model is followed by sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of risk factors on accident occurrence. Subsequently, the method is applied to a case study on collision risk assessment in Chinese waters. Findings indicate that multifactor coupling has a higher occurrence probability than two-factor coupling, with human-ship-environment-management coupling presenting the highest likelihood. Human and management factors emerge as pivotal in collision incidents, while the impact of ship and environmental factors on coupling becomes more pronounced as their probabilities vary. Leveraging the capability of BNs to handle uncertainties and logical relationships, combined with the data-driven N–K model, mitigates subjectivity. The results propose the formulation of risk management strategies and measures for practitioners to enhance maritime safety.